Hamilton to Ferrari: Power Dynamics, What It Could Mean for Leclerc and More
With 7x World Champion Lewis Hamilton switching to Ferrari in the 2025 season, what exactly does it mean for the current dynamics of the grid?
Okay, so we’ve all had a week to recover from the news. We’ve seen underwhelming liveries (I’m looking at you Alpine) and we’ve seen interesting ones (Kick’s bright green moves me to some extent) and now we can get down to serious business.
Lewis Hamilton’s 2025 move to Ferrari had the F1 world in shock for a couple of days. Theories of how they’d manage to fit him with their darling prince Charles Leclerc, where Carlos Sainz would go that year, and whether or not Fernando Alonso would swiftly move to the Mercedes seat have all been discussed.
I am in no way an insider on the grid, but I wanna try my hand at predictions too, so I’m gonna do exactly that.
Leclerc-Hamilton and the Ferrari Dilemna
It’s no secret that Leclerc is the poster boy for Ferrari. He’s said he wants to drive there, has just signed a huge contract extension, and the people love him. It’d be hard to push him aside for a Carlos Sainz, and though the Spaniard has shown he has the capability to defeat him in equal machinery, Leclerc just seems like the better driver. Now with Hamilton coming in, it’s highly likely that Ferrari’s no. 1 driver slot will be up for grabs. Do they favour the 7x Champion, who has shown that he can win in damn near every condition or do they go with their #16, who finished 2nd in WDC standing 2 years ago?
On paper, this is not a difficult decision, but knowing Ferrari, they’ll manage to screw it up nevertheless. Hamilton is 39 (40 by the time the 2025 season starts), not getting younger, and desperate to right the wrongs of Abu Dhabi 2021. He WANTS that 8th title. To do it in Michael’s legacy-building team would mean the world to him. He has the sense of urgency, and he’s less likely to handle the strategist’s BS than Leclerc is.
Ferrari’s biggest problem since Kimi’s WDC has been their inability to keep their aggression over a whole season. Leclerc’s 2022 WDC charge fell apart after he crashed in Paris, and they have never really recovered. When you take into account Sainz’s Silverstone and Singapore wins, it’s abundantly clear that drivers for Ferrari have been better when they decide how they want to control their race as opposed to their strategists.
For a driver as good as Lewis, that should really not be a problem. There’s also the added possibility that the arrival of Lewis should spur the Scuderia into becoming a serious team again. I mentioned this to a friend, and she simply said “god i hope so”.
So yeah, there’s a high possibility that Ferrari will make Lewis their #1 driver, but there’s an equal chance they don’t change anything, and keep Leclerc as their go-to guy.
Where will Carlos Sainz go?
It seems almost universally accepted that Sainz will be an Audi driver in 2026, but what about the 2025 season? TBH I don’t know about that one. Apart from Red Bull, McLaren, and Ferrari, almost the entire grid would love to have a driver of his experience in their car, even if it is just for 1 season.
Logan Sargent’s Williams career might be decided by how well he does this season, and a driver duo of Albon and Sainz could throw a spanner in the works for other teams. It seems unlikely that Tsunoda or Ricciardo will leave AlphaTauri (sorry VisaCashAppRB), but if DannyRic does leave, he’s more likely to replace Checo in the 2nd Red Bull seat. Haas’ duo of Hulkenberg and Magnussen seems to be safe, but it’s F1 and we could see a new face there as well. Adding to Sainz’s uncertainty is a certain Mick Schumacher, who’d love to prove his worth and fight for that 2nd Mercedes seat and make the leap from reserve to actual driver.
So yeah. Carlos Sainz certainly should have options. The fact that he was the ONLY non-Red Bull driver to win a race last season will definitely work in his favor. Where the Smooth Operator goes is something I’d certainly love to know sooner than later.
Will Alonso replace his former teammate-rival-frenemy at Mercedes?
George Russell’s steady rise to #1 driver material is very interesting. With the guarantee that he won’t be dwarfed by Lewis’ achievements in 2025, a GRuss WDC charge is possible (provided Mercedes let their no sidepod obsession go).
But the possibility of Fernando Alonso as a teammate makes things even more interesting. Alonso has been somewhat subdued at Aston Martin (he even provided advice to Lance one time), and it has been a while since the 2x Champ has been in a legitimate contender. I’d probably place him in the prime position to take Lewis’ seat, and if he does, Mercedes won’t really feel Hamilton’s absence as much. After a sensational start to 2023, Aston Martin’s failure to keep their car competitive, combined with the fact that he’s playing a supporting role to Lance, Fernando would love to be a #1 option on a contending team again.
My top three Lewis replacements are Alonso, Sainz, and then Schumacher, but knowing F1. we might not see any of them in that 2nd seat.
SO that’s that. My personal opinions, picks, and possible scenarios. Obviously, I have more chance of being wrong than right, but the next 2-3 seasons might be the most interesting we’ve had in F1 for a while.